HomeHomeTPAM 2019 Public



Welcome to the 2019 Technical Panel Public Information Page

Every four years the Social Security Advisory Board has appointed an independent, expert panel to review the assumptions and methods used to develop the annual report of the Social Security Trustees on the financial status of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance trust funds. This 2019 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods is the sixth panel the board has commissioned since 1999. SSAB held a public meeting to review the Technical Panel's final report, September 27, 2019, in the  Dirksen Senate Office Building Room 215. 10:30am-12:30pm.  


READ THE FINAL REPORT (PDF)  

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (PDF)   


ADDITIONAL MATERIAL:

REPORT SUPPLEMENT: Panel summary of estimates of the effect on Social Security finances of the Panel's recommendations by The Office of the Chief Actuary

• Technical Panel final report slide presentation September 27, 2019 

• Data from this report-[Download Excel file] (coming soon)

Member disclosures

Link to 2019 Trustees Report

Technical Panel member bios

Technical Panel charter

Information on previous Technical Panels


MEETING ARCHIVES:

November 16, 2018

  1.  Agenda  updated
  2. Slide Presentations:
    1. Mark Warshawsky, SSA
    2. William Marton, HHS
    3. Julie Topoleski, CBO
    4. Office of the Chief Actuary, SSA


December 14, 2018

  1. Agenda  revised 12-7-18
  2. Slide Presentations:
    1. Mortality: David Cutler, Understanding recent Trends in Mortality (in the United States)
    2. Mortality: Gerard Anderson JHU Clinical Experts Forecast of USA Mortality from 2009 to 2040
    3. Mortality: OCACT, Mortality Overview
    4. Disability: Jeffrey Schuh (RGA) and Richard Leavitt (SmithGroup), Disability Insurance: The Private Sector
    5. Disability; OCACT, Disability Experience, Assumptions and Projections 2018 TR
    6. Disability: Jeffrey Liebman, Harvard University, Disability Incidence Trends


January 25, 2019

  1. Agenda
  2. Slide Presentations:
    1. Office of the Chief Actuary: "Ultimate Economic Assumptions from 2018 Trustees Report"
    2. David Deming, Harvard University,  "Projecting Long-Run Trends in Earnings Inequality"
    3. Michael Chui, McKinsey Global Institute, "Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation"


February 15, 2019

  1. Agenda
  2. Slide Presentations:
    1. Fertility: Alison Gemmill: "Drivers of the Post-Recessionary Fertility Decline"
    2. Fertility: Hans-Peter Kohler: Perspectives on US Fertility Trends
    3. Fertility: Josh Goldstein: "Cohort and Period Fertility: Aiming for Consistent Projections"
    4. Fertility: OCACT: Fertility Overview
    5. Economics: Wendy Edelberg & Jeffrey Werling (CBO): "How CBO Develops the Economic Projections Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections"
    6. Methods-Microsimulation: Jagadeesh Gokhale Penn Wharton Budget Model
    7. Presentation: Jon Schwabish Better Data Communcation (16MB pdf file)

March 29, 2019

  1. Agenda
  2. Presentations
    1. Immigration-Emilio Parrado: "Immigration and Fertility"
    2. Immigration-Doug Massey: "Trends and Patterns of Immigration"
    3. Immigration-Office of the Chief Actuary, "Projecting Immigration"
    4. Economics-Daron Acemoglu "Future of Productivity and Work"
    5. Presentation-David Wessel "Presentation of the Trustees Report"
    6. Methods-James Stock "Long Term Growth Rates, Estimation and Uncertainty"


April 12, 2019

  1. Agenda
  2. Slide Presentations
    1. OCACT "Projection of Retired Workers" and "Benefit Level Methodology"-REVISED
    2. Gary Burtless "2017 Technical Panel on Labor Force Participation: Findings and Update"
    3. Louise Sheiner "A Review of the Economic Assumptions"


May 10, 2019

  1. Agenda
  2. Slide Presentations
    1. Martha Coven, "Writing for a Public Audience"
    2. OCACT "A Summary of Results from the 2019 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the OASI and DI Trust Funds"
    3. TPAM-"Immigration and mortality assumptions"
    4. Kathleen Mullen, "Thoughts on Disability Assumptions"
    5. Sita Slavov "Benefit Claiming Assumptions"
    6. Louise Sheiner-"Views on Labor Force Participation and the Unemployment Rate"



Members of the Technical Panel

Robert M. Beuerlein, [CHAIR] consulting actuary with RM Beuerlein Consulting and recently retired Senior Vice President and Chief Actuary of AIG Life and Retirement Companies; fellow of the Society of Actuaries, a member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst; past president of the American Academy of Actuaries (2017) and the Society of Actuaries (2006)

Ron Gebhardtsbauer, fellow of the Society of Actuaries, member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and professor emeritus in the Actuarial Science Program, Penn State University

Alexander Gelber, Ph.D., associate professor, Department of Economics and School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego

Joshua Goldstein, Ph.D., Chancellor’s Professor of Demography, University of California, Berkeley

Patricia L. (Tricia) Guinn, Director, Reinsurance Group of America, Inc. and Assetmark Financial Holdings, Inc.; fellow of the Society of Actuaries; member of the American Academy of Actuaries; Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst; and previously interim chief risk officer and managing director, Risk and Financial Services, Willis Towers Watson

Kathleen Mullen, Ph.D., senior economist, RAND Corporation; director, RAND Center for Disability Research; and associate director, RAND Economics, Sociology and Statistics Department

Louise Sheiner, Ph.D., Robert S. Kerr Senior Fellow in Economic Studies, Brookings Institution, and policy director, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Sita Nataraj Slavov, Ph.D., professor of public policy and director of the public policy Ph.D. program, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University

Kent Smetters, Ph.D., Boettner Chair Professor, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research

Tom Terry, fellow of the Society of Actuaries, member of the American Academy of Actuaries, fellow of the Conference of Consulting Actuaries, Enrolled Actuary, past president of the American Academy of Actuaries (2014) and the International Actuarial Association (2017); and CEO of the Terry Group, a healthcare, insurance and retirement consulting firm

 


Technical Panel report