Welcome to the Technical Panel Public Information Page
Every four years the Social Security Advisory Board has appointed an independent, expert panel to review the assumptions and methods used to develop the annual report of the Social Security Trustees on the financial status of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance trust funds. This 2019 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods is the sixth panel the board has commissioned since 1999.
Technical Panel Member Bios
Technical Panel Charter
Technical Panel Press Release
Information on Previous Technical Panels
Friday, November 16, 2018
Friday, December 14, 2018
Friday, January 25, 2019 (SSA HQ, Baltimore, MD)
Friday, February 15, 2019
Friday, March 29, 2019
Friday, April 12, 2019
Friday, May 10, 2019
Friday, June 7, 2019
Unless otherwise announced, all meetings will be held in the offices of the Social Security Advisory Board, 400 Virginia Ave SW, Suite 625, Washington, DC 20024. For information on attending meetings please contact Joel Feinleib at the Social Security Advisory Board Joel.Feinleib@ssab.gov or 202-475-7700.
Prior to each meeting, an agenda will be posted to this page. Subsequent to each meeting, all materials presented to the panel will be archived here.
November 16, 2018
1. Agenda updated
- Mark Warshawsky, SSA
- William Marton, HHS
- Julie Topoleski, CBO
- Office of the Chief Actuary, SSA
December 14, 2018
1. Agenda revised 12-7-18
- David Cutler, Understanding recent Trends in Mortality (in the United States)
- Gerard Anderson JHU Clinical Experts Forecast of USA Mortality from 2009 to 2040
- OCACT, Mortality Overview
- Jeffrey Schuh (RGA) and Richard Leavitt (SmithGroup), Disability Insurance: The Private Sector
- OCACT, Disability Experience, Assumptions and Projections 2018 TR
- Jeffrey Liebman, Harvard University, Disability Incidence Trends
January 25, 2019
- Office of the Chief Actuary: "Ultimate Economic Assumptions from 2018 Trustees Report"
- David Deming, Harvard University, "Projecting Long-Run Trends in Earnings Inequality"
- Michael Chui, McKinsey Global Institute, "Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation"
February 15, 2019
- SLIDE PRESENTATIONS
- FERTILITY: Alison Gemmill: "Drivers of the Post-Recessionary Fertility Decline"
- FERTILITY: Hans-Peter Kohler: Perspectives on US Fertility Trends
- FERTILITY: Josh Goldstein: "Cohort and Period Fertility: Aiming for Consistent Projections"
- FERTILITY: OCACT: Fertility Overview
- ECONOMICS: Wendy Edelberg & Jeffrey Werling (CBO): "How CBO Develops the Economic Projections Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections"
- MICROSIM: Jagadeesh Gokhale Penn Wharton Budget Model
- PRESENTATION: Jon Schwabish Better Data Communcation (16MB pdf file)
Members of the Technical Panel
Robert M. Beuerlein, [CHAIR] consulting actuary with RM Beuerlein Consulting and recently retired Senior Vice President and Chief Actuary of AIG Life and Retirement Companies; fellow of the Society of Actuaries, a member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst; past president of the American Academy of Actuaries (2017) and the Society of Actuaries (2006)
Ron Gebhardtsbauer, fellow of the Society of Actuaries, member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and professor emeritus in the Actuarial Science Program, Penn State University
Alexander Gelber, Ph.D., associate professor, Department of Economics and School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego
Joshua Goldstein, Ph.D., Chancellor’s Professor of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
Patricia L. (Tricia) Guinn, interim chief risk officer, Willis Towers Watson; fellow of the Society of Actuaries; member of the American Academy of Actuaries; Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst; and previously managing director, Risk and Financial Services, Towers Watson
Kathleen Mullen, Ph.D., senior economist, RAND Corporation; director, RAND Center for Disability Research; and associate director, RAND Economics, Sociology and Statistics Department
Louise Sheiner, Ph.D., Robert S. Kerr Senior Fellow in Economic Studies, Brookings Institution, and policy director, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Sita Nataraj Slavov, Ph.D., professor of public policy and director of the public policy Ph.D. program, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University
Kent Smetters, Ph.D., Boettner Chair Professor, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research
Tom Terry, fellow of the Society of Actuaries, member of the American Academy of Actuaries, fellow of the Conference of Consulting Actuaries, Enrolled Actuary, past president of the American Academy of Actuaries (2014) and the International Actuarial Association (2017); and CEO of the Terry Group, a healthcare, insurance and retirement consulting firm