HomeHomeTPAM 2015 Public

Welcome to the 

2015 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods

Public Information Page


Members of the Panel

Panel Charter issued by the Social Security Advisory Board

Meeting schedule:

Thursday and Friday, May 7-8, 2015

Friday, June 19, 2015


Meeting information

December 12, 2014 Meeting  held at SSAB, Washington, DC

1. Agenda
2. Response to prior Technical Panel recommendations: OACT commentary
3. Accuracy of past projections
 4. Replacement rates
(b) OACT Actuarial Note 155: Replacement Rates for Retirees: What Makes Sense for Planning and Evaluation?, July 2014 (this is the note released ion response to the dropping of replacement rates in the 2014 Trustees Report )
(c) OACT Actuarial Note 9 (recurring): Replacement Rates for Hypothetical Retired Workers, July 2014 
5. Mortality
 (c) OACT slides (Alice Wade) on SSA mortality projections  
(i) Steve Goss, Presentation to Society of Actuaries, October 2014
(ii) Sam Gutterman, article on 2014 SOA session on mortaltiy projection, The Actuary, Dec. 2014

January 16, 2015 meeting, held at NBER, Cambridge, MA

  1. Agenda
  2. Meeting handouts
    1. Information from the Office of the Chief Actuary on labor force particpation projections
      1. LFPR model variables
      2. Decomposition of changes 1 (short range)
      3. Decomposition of change 2 (long range)
    2. Presentation slides:
      1. Katharine Abraham "Notes on labor force trends and projections"
      2. Claudia Goldin "Notes on the female labor force"
      3. John Campbell "Long run prospects for real interest rates"
      4. Jim Stock "The Slowdown in GDP Growth"

 February 13, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC

  1. Agenda
  2. Meeting Handouts (posted on day of meeting)
    1. Fertility: Ron Rindfuss presentation slides on fertility assumptions
    2. Mortality Sam Gutterman Presentation slides on mortaltiy assumptions and methods
      1. OACT Differential mortality
      2. OACT Mortality improvement
    3. Disability
      1. OACT presentation slides
      2. Jeff Liebman presentation slides
      3. David Autor presentation slides

  March 13, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC

  1. Agenda
  2. Meeting Handouts (posted on day of meeting)
    1. Immigration assumptions and methods
      1. OACT presentation slides
      2. Michael Teitelbaum presentation slides
    2. Presentation of Uncertainty
      1. OACT presentation slides
      2. Joe Silvestri presentation slides

May 7 & 8, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC

  1. Agenda
  2. SLIDES: Gary King-projection accuracy
  3. SLIDES: Diamond- & Brown Inflation and Interest rates 
  4. SLIDES: Brown & Gutterman-Infinite Horizon
  5. SLIDES: Sam Preston -Mortality projections (not all slides in deck are part of presentation)
  6. SLIDES: OACT-Projections of Life Expectancy at 65 1982-2014
  7. SLIDES: Brown & Diamond-Replacement Rates
  8. SLIDES: Abraham & Goldin-Labor Force Particpation
  9. SLIDES: Abraham-Unemployment
  10. SLIDES: Silvestri-Presentation of Uncertainty
  11. SLIDES: Autor-Taxable Share
  12. SLIDES: Gutterman-Mortaltiy differentials by income and education

June 19, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC

  1. Agenda